Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030

The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 to 2030 at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product Version 5, which provides a conservative estimate of global urban land cover. The authors then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create the population density driver map. They estimated the amount of new urban land in each United Nations region by 2030 in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities and probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030. To facilitate integration with other data products, CIESIN reprojected the data from Goode's Homolosine to Geographic WGS84 projection.

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Field Value
Maintainer undefined
Last Updated April 23, 2025, 22:57 (UTC)
Created March 31, 2025, 23:00 (UTC)
accessLevel public
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catalog_@id https://data.nasa.gov/data.json
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citation Seto, K., B. G�neralp, and L.R. Hutyra. 2016-03-04. Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030. Version 1.00. Palisades, NY. Archived by National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. Government, NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/H4Z899CG. https://doi.org/10.7927/H4Z899CG.
creator Seto, K., B. G�neralp, and L.R. Hutyra
graphic-preview-description Maps Download Page
graphic-preview-file https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030/maps
harvest_object_id 001757e5-2a3b-4626-a94d-34b2072a0ee8
harvest_source_id 61638e72-b36c-4866-9d28-551a3062f158
harvest_source_title DNG Legacy Data
identifier C1399902925-SEDAC
issued 2016-03-04
landingPage https://doi.org/10.7927/H4Z899CG
language {en-US}
metadata_type geospatial
modified 2016-03-04
programCode {026:001}
publisher SEDAC
references {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109}
release-place Palisades, NY
resource-type Dataset
source_datajson_identifier true
source_hash 57e5a0b20f68dd8fd8ca68b49429eacb49d5960c2776b8c43c1170864382daef
source_schema_version 1.1
spatial -180.0 -90.0 180.0 90.0
temporal 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z/2030-12-31T00:00:00Z
theme {LULC,geospatial}